Why Chrome Will be Successful

PCWorld has an article about why Chrome OS will fail.

Chrome isn’t a “real” operating system If I were building Chrome, I’d do everything possible to hide the operating system and hope users don’t notice what’s been left out. But is that possible? At what point must something that looks and acts like an operating system be presented to users? How much functionality can be sacrificed to provide ease-of-use? Google describes Chrome almost as though an operating system can do all its work behind-the-scenes. I am not sure this is as possible as Google might like to believe. The closer Chrome comes to being a “real” OS, the more Linux-y it will become. Oops! A one-way ticket on the Voyage to the Bottom of the Market awaits.

link: Five Reasons Google Chrome OS Will Fail – LinuxWorld

I think that this article illustrates exactly why it will be successful.

First, we have to define success. For google, they just need to nudge the world toward more web software. That is success for them. So, the question becomes how will they achieve this.

Google is one of the few companies out there that is willing to throw money at an idea and see what sticks. They are also one of the few companies that are seeing that the world is changing.

Linux has struggled on the desktop because it constantly tries to be windows or mac os. (BTW, I love linux on the desktop). However, they have not really innovated in meaningful ways. They are always competing head to head with marginal improvements.

Google, on the other hand, is taking a look at what can be different in an always connected world. The simple answer is, you don’t need installed software. It is the mainframe model. The same model that has driven web based applications into the enterprise. If you can deliver a good user experience on the web, then users are ok with having to be connected. They proved that with Gmail.

Another, more subtle, thing that Google is doing is creating a market place for developers. There are a lot of web developers who already have a broad audience. However, in a operating system without installed software, there is increased opportunity to provide utility software. With the netbook market burgeoning, this gives web developers the ability to target a potentially large segment of the population (especially in developing countries).

With all of that said, the article I referenced provides the primary reason why Google will succeed. Microsoft thinks they have it right. They think that their solution to the operating system problem is the only answer and are laughing at someone else getting into that business. Their willingness to consider that the problem has changed is constrained by the investment they have made in their solution. They can’t afford to allow the problem to change. So, their only response will be to insist that the problem is the same and that users will be frustrated without the familiar capabilities of windows. That may be true in some markets, but the more I see, it looks and feels like the problem is changing from make my computer run my apps to Sun’s vision: ‘ the network is the computer’.