Azure is not Microsoft’s next Outlook

I read the following article today which suggests that:

Microsoft has found their new Outlook.

link: Microsoft Azure is The New Outlook — jungleG

The claim is that Microsoft has found their new killer application. I think it is certainly interesting. Having push button deployment of applications into the cloud is a nice thing to have. However, there are some key issues that I think will make this very interesting.

• How does monopoly policy play into this? Would Microsoft be forced to provide a push button deployment for amazon, google, etc as well? Since their OS is a monopoly, would they be able to integrate the development infrastructure in such a way to give themselves a competitive advantage? I don’t think so.
• Will Microsoft actually offer a better product? Probably not. Then again, they very rarely have the best mouse trap. Frankly, Sun’s solution (which is still vapor) is probably the best conceived cloud offering. However, Microsoft has legions of developers that will happily host with Microsoft if Microsoft is cost competitive.
• Will Microsoft be able to outcompete the likes of google and amazon when it comes to cloud hosting to independent developers and small companies? That remains to be seen. However, I don’t think that it is a clear slam dunk. They are late to the game and have a lot of ground to make up.
• How will Microsoft operating systems survive in the cloud? They are clearly the most riddled with security issues. I don’t think that this is only a technical issue. Clearly they are targeted more directly. However, if companies have to start maintaining security software, the effective cost of the offering will increase. Also, one wonders if this will make a prime target for hackers. If viruses that steal data from individual PCs are a big business, how much money will a worm that steals data from a subsection of Azure be worth?
• What does Microsoft really believe in? On one side they are betting on RIAs (more client server focused applications). On the other side they are betting on web applications (azure). I wonder if they actually believe in this or if they are simply trying to protect turf (think msn).
• Will Microsoft create a store based on this? Is Microsoft creating a store? Everyone else is? If, as the author suggests, Microsoft will offer a gallery of applications you can launch into your space, what will they charge? Will they vet the applications for security? Will they take an apple-like approach to protecting their platform?

I think that it is going to be interesting to see how this market shakes out. There are some dominant players and the market is still young. It’s uncertain whether the technical or the business model has been established at this point. So, I think it is a bit early to declare Microsoft as a winner.