Java to VB in 11 years?

Tiobe published their latest language survey today.
TIOBE Software: Tiobe Index

It’s been a while since I looked at it in any depth. However, this time I took the time to look at the trends. Using a simple linear interpolation, it looks as if Java will reach VB’s current level of irrelevance in about 11 years.

Now, VB is not irrelevant, it is still widely used for a large number of purposes. However, it is widely considered to be a dated or legacy language. If you accept that, and oracle does not radically alter the trend, Java will be in the same place in about 2020.

What is more interesting, is that there is not a clear heir apparent. There are several dynamic languages (including php — is that a language or a toolkit?), that have a positive slope. However, none seem to be approaching a breakout that would offset the losses that Java, C, and C++ are having. (I wonder if that represents a diversification among languages or a flaw in the survey.) Anyway, I think it is interesting to look at the trends from a career perspective. It appears that we are in store for a language trend change in the next 2-3 years. It could be an up and comer like GO. Or, it could be something entirely new.